House stock forecasting based on population growth. A case of Nur-Sultan City, Kazakhstan

Abstract

Since the beginning of 2020, the "Nurly Zher" housing and communal development program for 2020-2025 came into force in Kazakhstan. Within the framework of this program there are tasks of capital repair and renovation of the housing stock. The passportization of the housing stock was adopted as one of the measures to solve this problem. At the same time there are some discrepancies in the statistical data between the Committee of Statistics of the Ministry of National Economy of the RK and Local Executive Authorities with a simultaneous increase in the volume of housing construction. This article examines the volume of residential buildings commissioned in Nur-Sultan depending on changes in the population of the city. It is assumed that as the number of people in the city will increase the volume of housing stock. To understand the volume of housing in Nur-Sultan in the period of the program "Nurly Zher" in the article gives a forecast increase in commissioned housing by 62% by 2025, compared with the value at the end of 2020. Based on the data obtained it is concluded that for a more effective solution to the problem of capital repair and renovation of housing stock an alternative approach or tool is needed.